535年至536年全球极端天气事件
![](http://images.weserv.nl/?url=//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1d/SS_Filippo_e_Giacomo%2C_Nosedo._Lapide_del_536_d.c._Photo_by_Giovanni_Dall%27Orto%2C_3_July_2022_2.jpg/220px-SS_Filippo_e_Giacomo%2C_Nosedo._Lapide_del_536_d.c._Photo_by_Giovanni_Dall%27Orto%2C_3_July_2022_2.jpg)
535年至536年全球极端天气事件是近2000年来北半球最严重且持续时间最长的气候变冷事件[1]。这场火山冬天由至少三次不确定来源的同时火山爆发引起,各大陆都提出了几个可能的地点。大多数有关火山冬季的当代记录来自东罗马帝国首都君士坦丁堡的作者,尽管较凉爽的温度影响范围超出了欧洲。但现代学者确定,在公元536年初(或可能是535年末),有一次火山爆发将大量的硫酸盐气溶胶喷射到大气中,减少了到达地球表面的太阳辐射,使大气冷却了数年。536年3月,君士坦丁堡开始出现阴暗的天空和较低的温度。
536年的夏季温度在欧洲下降了高达2.5°C(4.5°F)的正常值。536年火山冬季的持续影响在539-540年进一步增强,当时另一次火山爆发导致夏季温度在欧洲下降了高达2.7°C(4.9°F)的正常值。[2]还有证据表明,在547年发生了另一次火山爆发,进一步延长凉爽的时期。这些火山爆发导致作物歉收,并伴随着查士丁尼大瘟疫、饥荒和数百万人的死亡,开启了晚古代小冰河时期,持续了从536年到560年。[3]
研究中世纪的学者麦可·麦考米克(Michael McCormick)写道,公元536年是“对在世者来说最难生存的一年(the worst year to be alive)[…] 即使不是最糟糕的一年,也是最糟糕的时期之一的开始”。[4]
文件证据
罗马历史学者普罗科匹厄斯曾在公元536年的报告中记录了汪达尔战争,并提及到“在这一年发生了一个非常可怕的预兆。因为太阳发出了光而无光芒……它看起来非常像日蚀中的太阳,因为它所发出的光束并不清晰”。[5][6]
538年,罗马政治家卡西奥多罗斯在信函25中向他的一位下属描述了以下情况: [7]
- 太阳的光线微弱,呈现出“蓝色”。
- 中午时分,地面上看不到人的阴影。太阳的热度微弱。即使是满月也“缺乏光彩”。
- “没有暴风的冬天,没有温和的春天,没有热情的夏天”。
- 持续的霜冻和不合时宜的干旱。
- 季节“似乎都混在一起了”。
- 天空被描述为“与异物混合在一起”,就像多云的天气一样,但是持续时间较长。它“像一块皮肤般被拉伸在天空中”,阻止了太阳和月亮的“真实颜色”被看见,以及太阳的温暖。
- 收割期间的霜冻,使得苹果变硬且葡萄变酸。
- 需要使用储存的食物来度过这种情况。
随后的信件(26号和27号)讨论了纾解普遍饥荒的计划。
叙利亚东正教会的教父叙利亚的米海尔报告称,在536–537年期间,太阳微弱地照耀了一年半。[8]
爱尔兰盖尔诺人的爱尔兰编年史记录了以下情况:[9][10][11]
10世纪中叶的《威尔士年代记》记录了537年的事件:
其他独立的当代资料也报导了进一步的现象:
此外对于这一时期还有其他证据来源。[16][17][18][19]
科学证据
贝尔法斯特女王大学的树轮年代学专家迈克·贝利根据对树木的年轮分析显示,536年的爱尔兰橡树生长异常缓慢,542年再次急剧下降,之后部分恢复。[20]来自格陵兰和南极洲的冰芯显示,在534年左右有大量的硫酸盐沉积,这是广泛存在的酸性尘埃帷幕的证据。[21]
可能的解释
最初有理论认为,公元536年的气候变化是由火山爆发(被称为“火山冬天”现象)或撞击事件(陨石或彗星)引起的。[22][23][24] 在2015年,对极地冰芯的年代学的修订将硫酸盐沉积和一层隐蔽火山碎屑层的日期确定为公元536年(之前的日期是修订前的公元529年)。[25]这是一个强有力的证据,表明一次大规模的火山爆发导致观察到的昏暗和降温,从而无需外太空天体的解释[21][25],但这个时期附近的一次撞击事件也不能排除。[26]
火山爆发的来源仍有待发现,但几个提出的火山已被否定:
- R·B·斯托瑟斯(R. B. Stothers)提出巴布亚新几内亚新不列颠岛的拉包尔火山[27]。但根据挪威气候研究中心的摆动匹配放射性碳定年,现在认为该爆发发生在公元667年至699年之间。[28]
- 大卫·基斯将爪哇国王书中公元416年的灾难移至公元535年[15],并提出了喀拉喀托火山的可能性。但在巽他海峡进行的钻探计划中,排除了在这个时期火山爆发发生的可能性。[29]
- 罗伯特·达尔(Robert Dull)和同事提出了伊洛潘戈湖火山口的大型VEI-7,即蒂埃拉布兰卡·霍文火山爆发[30][31]。但冰芯中TBJ火山灰的识别将爆发日期缩小到公元429年至433年。[32]
- 克里斯托弗·洛夫勒克(Christopher Loveluck)及其同事根据瑞士冰川中的碎片提出了冰岛火山.[4][33][34]。然而,确定为公元536年的隐蔽火山碎屑在地球化学上与冰岛火山碎屑有所不同[35],而瑞士冰川中的碎片具有较大的年代不确定性。[33]
对公元536年的隐蔽火山碎屑的地球化学分析区分了北美洲至少三次同步的喷发事件。[25]进一步的分析将其中一次喷发与加利福尼亚东北部识别的广泛的莫诺-因约火山口火山灰相关联[25][36]。另外两次喷发最有可能来自阿拉斯加州西南端阿留申群岛和北方喀斯喀特山火山省。[25][37]
后果
部分学者推测,公元536年的事件和随之而来的饥荒解释了民族大迁徙末期斯堪的纳维亚精英族群大量窖藏黄金的现象。这些黄金可能是用来祭祀神明以恢复阳光的祭品。[38][39]一些神话事件,如“芬布尔之冬”和“诸神黄昏”,被认为是基于对这一事件的文化记忆。[40]
大卫·基斯(David Keys)的一本书推测气候变化促成了各种发展,例如查士丁尼大瘟疫的出现(541–549年)、阿瓦尔人的衰落、蒙古部落向西迁徙、萨珊王朝的结束、笈多王朝的崩溃、伊斯兰教的兴起、突厥部落的扩张以及特奥蒂瓦坎的崩溃。[15]2000年,3BM电视制作(为WNET和Channel Four)借鉴了基斯的书。这部纪录片以《灾难!世界是如何改变的》为名,在美国作为PBS的《死者的秘密》系列的一部分播出。[41]
然而,基斯和沃勒兹的观点缺乏主流接受。在评论基斯的书时,英国考古学家肯·达克指出,“书中呈现的许多明显证据都存在争议,基于不良来源或者纯粹的错误。……尽管如此,全球范围和对公元6世纪作为一个变革时期的强调是值得注意的,该书包含了一些对许多人来说是新的,模糊的信息。然而,它未能证明其核心命题,并未对所讨论的许多变化提供令人信服的解释。”[42]
语言学家安德鲁·布里兹在最近的一本书(2020年)中辩称,包括剑栏之战、亚瑟王在内的一些历史事件,是在537年由于与前一年气候变化相关的饥荒而发生的。[43]
历史学家罗伯特·布鲁顿(Robert Bruton)认为,这一灾难对罗马帝国的衰落起了一定作用。[44]
另见
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